Credible but not ‘free and fair’

“The Nigerian elections were credible, not free and fair” said a highly respected member of the African community who was head of one of the international observer missions. In other words, “it is believable that the winner won but that does not mean he won fairly”. In the aftermath of the results of the presidential elections being announced, the violence which has followed and the political ramifications and fallouts which might still occur there are several issues which remain unclear and unsaid. And if we and our government are sincere about really resolving the issues and moving forward we need to take these issues into consideration. People are questioning how free and fair the elections really were; the veracity of voter turnout; why the supporters of CPC are engaged in ‘senseless’ violence in states which CPC won; and why people cannot accept loss gracefully? These are the noisy questions. The quiet questions being whispered into the soft high bellies of diplomats, business moguls and foreign policy experts are: how stingy can we be with the truth? What would be the real impact of what we know to our source of oil, to the stability of the region and to the reputation of democracy in Nigeria, and indeed Africa?
Without a doubt, we have seen an improvement in the delivery of elections in Nigeria. There is increased transparency for parts of the process and we see some strategy going into the planning. The good news is that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has a benchmark by which future elections will be measured. INEC has set certain standards for the way elections are managed and the expectation of Nigerians is that ‘it can be done right’ and the election processes will continue to improve. The bad news is that, as everyone has pointed out – the elections were still far from perfect. If elections in Nigeria in the past have been ranked at minus 8 out of 10, then the 2011 elections have moved us to a ranking of 2 out of 10. So far only CPC is contesting the legitimacy of the presidential results; and rightly so because at the very least the voter-turn out in many parts of the country is suspicious. Of particular note were the exceptionally high turnout figures in Abia (77%), Akwa Ibom (75%), Bayelsa (85%), Bauchi (63%), Cross River (63%), Delta (68%), Edo (74%), Enugu (62%), Kaduna (65%), Imo (84%), Plateau (62%) and Rivers (76%) states. This is against the national average of 53% (which is itself inflated by the unnaturally high figures) and the historical voting patterns of Nigerians which show that high turnout is atypical. The collation process seems to be the weakest link in the election management process and INEC appears to have been ineffective in its oversight function in monitoring and controlling the collation process. This state of affairs, along with stories of fantastic sums of money being used as incentives, raises doubts about the authenticity of some of the figures arising from this process. According to one report, PDP might also have a reason to doubt the integrity of some of the votes for CPC because of the lingering question on under-aged voters in the north. But as questionable victors, who are trying to avoid scrutiny, it is not likely they will point oil stained fingers at anyone. The bottom line is that the tag ‘free and fair’ should stick in our throats the way pure water bags clog up our drains. And this is where law, order and justice come in.
Without a doubt the judiciary is complicit in where we find ourselves today. If Nigerians know that they can get comfort and redress for wrongs from the courts, then people would not feel so desperate to take matters into their own hands. No plaintiff in Nigeria, challenging a presidential election against an incumbent, has ever gotten judgement in their favour. At every turn, INEC refuses to ever see itself as neutral and instead staunchly camps for the defendants to insist before heaven and man, that the elections were free and fair; and the injustice builds up and up until it explodes. It is the same exploding injustice that has resulted from years of sweeping the killings amongst Muslims and Christians under the carpet of ‘political peace’ which continues to plague us all. Peace built on injustice is not sustainable. Since the civil war ended, killings in the name of religion have become normal; enquiry panels are set up to investigate, no one is publicly held accountable or punished but the media reports that things have returned to ‘normal’. But nothing is ever resolved and with each successive excuse to hack at each other for fraudulent elections or imposed candidates or just plain pain, both sides take it – riled up by years of being told to be patient and forgiving while injustice continues to flourish. All our elections since 1959 have been marred with fraud and violence and a cursory read through the observer reports or a search on Google will get you details. We already knew that there was going to be violence so why weren’t our security and intelligence agencies better prepared? By the evening of Saturday April 16 2011, stories of violence had started filtering in from Bauchi and as INEC started reporting the results, why didn’t we think of sending troops to areas where trouble could be anticipated? Instead we prefer to wait for order to completely break down before we start calling for peace and forgiveness: tired and empty words for those who cannot get justice from the legal system and who continue to bear the brunt of the Federal Government’s inability to secure the life and property of its citizens. Each time we hold elections we have an opportunity to let change happen peacefully or we allow ourselves to be dragged further and further away from building on our collective lessons to do better. We allow a few to make a choice about sacrificing our interests, our property and sometimes, even our lives for the sake of the larger picture. And we need to start asking, does this larger picture not have room for the peace that justice brings? Does this larger picture not have room for Nigerians to choose and reject fellow Nigerians at the polls without the interference of the incumbents and their agents? And does this larger picture not have room for a Nigeria where everyone can enjoy the benefits and services of a functioning and accountable government? The judiciary has a choice – it can try to rid itself (with our help) of the stigma of corruption and stand nobly and less financially flush, on the side of what is fair and just to restore confidence in this institution. INEC has a choice – it can take swift action to rectify the inefficiencies in its processes and ensure that today’s elections are not only seen to be credible, but more free and fair than they were on April 16. The opposition and civil society organisations have a choice – to guard the votes of the people as well and as honestly as they can and start strategising for peaceful civil disobedience if they believe the will of the people has been kidnapped and sold to the bidders with access to the excess crude account. And we the voters have one last choice to make in the 2011 elections – to play the role that the majority of us have played with grace and conviction – to go out and conduct ourselves responsibly and vote. Our vote is not only a declaration about what path we want our country to take, it is also an article of faith, that if we are consistent about our expectations, we will get free and fair elections…maybe even, today.